CLOUD COVER BUILDING FROM SW. THICK CLOUDS OVER GULF STATES MAY BE CUTTING OFF THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF MOISTURE. SLOW BUILD OF CLOUDS FROM SW TO NE TOWARDS FA RENFORCES IDEA OF SLOW PROGESSION OF MOISTENING UPPER LVLS IN THE FA. 

250MB ANALYSIS PLACES FA IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT JET STREAK, ENHANCING DIVERGENCE IN UPPER ATM. 500MB IS SIMILAR TO 250 WITH FAVORABLE JET STREAM FOR DSIVERGENCE BUT A FLATTENING TROUGH AND LP MOVING NE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 850MB PLACES 40-45KT JET STREAKS OVER OHIO VALLEY WHICH IS AIDING THE MOISTURE PLUME CURRENTLY OVER THAT REGION, AND SHOULD ADVECT OVER THE FA OVERNIGHT.

SFC MAP PLACES WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE WITH A SLIGHT SSW TO ENE OREINTATION. DEFINATELY HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SFC TEMPES RISING BEFORE THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SFC CONV OVER FA OR OHIO VALLEY FOR THAT MATTER WHERE BULK OF PRECIP IS CURRENTLY LOCATED.

RUC 6HR LOOP OF TEMP AND WIND DIRECTION SHOWS A WARM FRONT JOGGING TO NNE WITH 40 DEG TEMPS JUST TO THE SW IN WV. HARDLY INDICATIVE OF A SFC LAYER AIDING RAIN FRZING ON CONTACT OR SNOW FOR THAT MATTER. GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850MB IS HELPING TO WARM AIR AND ENGHANCE THE MELTING LAYER. ALSO, PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

6HR ETA MODEL SHOWS LOW QPF NUMBERS FOR FA BUT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS THE LIGHT FALLING PRECIP. SHOULD EVAP AND COOL THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMP JUST ENOUGH TO INDUCE A BREIF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET, HOWEVER WITH CONSTANT WARM STREAM AT 850MB SNOW ISN'T EXPECTED TO MIX IN. AFTER THIS PERIOD THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE S OF THE FA AND THE
HIGH RELATIVE VORTICITY IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE TEXARKANA REGION WILL DRY SLOT THE FA AND LIKELY BRING AN EARLY END TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET PORTION OF THE EVENT.

WRF MODEL SHOWS REFLECTIVITY OVER FA AS EARLY AS 1AM HOWEVER VERY LIGHT THUS OUR PERIOD OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING. BETWEEN 2-3AM ENOUGH REFLECTIVITY IS SHOWING UP TO BE INDICATIVE OF MEAURABLE GROUND PRECIP. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP 2M WRF TEMPS SHIOW THE FA AS BEING ABOUT 34 DEG. NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT EVAP COOL THE FA SHOULD BE AT OR VERY NEAR FRZING. THAT BEING SAID, THE EVENT MAY START AS A PERIOD OF FRZING DRIZZLE.

FURTHER MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME DISCONTINUITY. GFS LIKES THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCH QPF, MREF AND SREF ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC AND WE TEND TO AGREE IN THIS CASE AS THE MAJORITY OF THIS WINTER HAS SEEN THE GFS OVERSHOOT QPF VALUES.

IN SUMMARY THE EVENT WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT ON FRIDAY AND ENDING BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE PRECIP BEGINS EVAP COOLING SHOULD BRING TEMPS DOWN ENOUGH TO CREATE A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OR FRZING DRIZZLE. ONCE THE SUN RISES ON FRIDAY MORN IN COMBINATION WITH A WARM STREAM OF AIR FROM THE SOUTH THE FROZEN
PERIOD OF PRECIP WILL END AND CHANGE TO RAIN UNTIL THE DRY SLOT AFFECTS THE FA. AFTER THE FROPA WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL SHOW THE FA SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO CONCLUDE THIS STORM. EXPECT LITTLE TO NO NOTICEABLE FRZING RN ACCUMULATION WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE. ALSO THERE SHOULD BE NO MEASUREABLE SNOWFALL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.