**SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH # 206 ISSUED UNTIL 1100 PM EDT**

SEE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) WEBSITE FOR DETAILS:
http://spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0206.html

1KM VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED LOW TOPPED CLOSED CELL CONVECTION ALIGNED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA, JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT

TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ARE IN THE MID 80S WITH NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA IN THE LOW 50S.  A WARM FRONT MOVING ENE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER 50-100 MILES.

ERIE PENNSYLVANIA - 48 DEGREES
FRANKLIN PENNSYLVANIA - 74
PITTSBURGH PENNSYLVANIA - 84

WITH TEMPERATURES PREDOMINATELY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO, ANY CAPPING INVERSION HAS BEEN ERODED, AND SBCAPE VALUES ARE EXCEEDING 500 J/KG IN MOST AREAS OF SW PA.  MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO HAS SBCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG.

LI VALUES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH A RANGE OF 0 TO -2 THE NORM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER WITH INTENSE SOLAR HEATING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE FA ARE -9 C/KM.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO DECENT (6 TO 7.5 C/KM).

NORTHERN ZONES ARE MORE LIKELY TO GET BRUNT OF ANY ISOLATED SEVERE TRW DEVELOPMENT, WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS, AND ALSO LARGE HAIL OUT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE CLUSTERS.  TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS DECENT WIND SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED 0-3SRH VALUES ARE AROUND 250 M^2S^-2

NOT EXPECTING SOUTHWEST PA TO GET MAJOR SEVERE EVENT AS TD VALUES ARE BARELY 50 DEGREES F, LIMITING MOISTURE SUPPORT FOR MOST STORMS.  BY SUNDOWN TD VALUES MAY BE MORE SUPPORTIVE (~55 DEGREES F) AND COUPLED WITH STEEP SFC LAPSE RATES ACROSS FA, WIDESPREAD LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SEVERE CLUSTERS AND LINES WILL BE PROBABLE.