FORECAST DISCUSSION – From The Cal-U Weather Laboratory
Issued: 2130Z FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 06, 2009
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CURRENTLY AT THE CAL U WEATHER CENTER THE PRESSURE IS 1025 MB AND STEADY WITH THE TEMPERATURE AT 49 F. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SE AT 2 MPH WITH THE DEW POINT READING 23 F. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AT 250 MB LEVEL THERE IS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE NE AND NW CONTRIBUTING TO THE HIGH JET STREAKS FOR THOSE AREAS. 500 MB DOWN THROUGH 700 MB THE SAME PATTERN CONTINUES. AT 850 MB THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES, SHOWING A RIDGE IN THE E AND THE TROUGH AXIS DIPPING DOWN THROUGH THE MID-WEST. VISIBLE SATALLITE IMAGRY SHOWS ORGRAPHIC LIFTING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION IS GENRATING GRAVITY WAVES, HELPING TO INITATE CLOUDS. IR AND WV CONFIRM HIGH PRESSURE LOCATION. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS INDICATES A MOIST TONGUE THROUGH THE MID-WEST WITH UPSLOPING. DOWNSLOPING IS OCCURING THROUGHOUT THE NE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE E CONUS. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB IS LOCATED IN NE NM. STREAMLINE MAPS CONFIRM THE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATION WITH CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-WEST. CURRENT WEATHER MAPS DISPLAYS SNOW WITH FOGGY CONDITIONS IN N NY AND RAIN OVER W WA. SKEW-T FROM 12 Z FOR KPIT HAS MOSIT CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE UP UNTIL 850 MB WHERE A HYDROLAPSE IS LOCATED. THE TROPOPAUSE LEVEL IS AT 231 MB. UPSTREAM AT KILX, SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE DRY UNTIL 700 MB. TROPOPAUSE IS HIGHER AT 103 MB. GFS MODELS FOR 500 MB VORTICITY SHOWS A ZONAL PATTERN FROM NOW UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHEN THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY. NO MAJOR VORTICY IS EXPECTED FOR THE FA. 6-HR PRECIP SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE WARMING UP FOR THIS WEEKEND BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME COLDER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NWS ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS: NONE |
Prepared by: / REPASI / WALKER / WARNICK / BISTURA / RICE / KACHINKO / |


