FORECAST DISCUSSION – From The Cal-U Weather Laboratory
Issued: 1635Z TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 03, 2009

CURRENTLY AT CAL U THE TEMPERATURE IS 48F UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A DEW POINT OF 35F.   THE WINDS ARE NW AT 7MPH WITH A BAROMETRIC PRESSURE OF 1022MB.

CURRENT....

S/W ENERGY MOVING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA IS LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ND ALL THE WAY DOWN TO TX.  FORECAST MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF SHOWERS TO BE THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING. 

FOR THE FA WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MAX OUT FAIRLY SOON WITH THE WIND SHIFT LEADING TO A COLDER NW FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS.  SFC CONDITIONS CONFIRM GUSTS UP TO 23KTS BEHIND THE FRONT IN OH. 

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT MAV AND THE MET SHOW CLOUD COVER APPROACHING AT DUSK KEEPING TEMPS RIGHT AROUND FREEZING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW.  HOWEVER, WE WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THE SKY COVER WILL BECOME CLEAR WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM. 

WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY EVENING WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AS TWO S/W'S WILL PASS BY.  THE FIRST ONE IS CURRENTLY PASSING THRU SD.  THE SECOND ONE WILL DIG DOWN FROM CANADA AND PHASE WITH THE PREVIOUS S/W RESULTING IN A DEEP COASTAL LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.  NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN OUR FA. 

LONG TERM...

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WE DRY OUT FOR FRIDAY AND START TO WARM UP.  THE COLD AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL NOT STAY AROUND AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  ACCORDING TO THE EUROPEAN MODEL WE COULD BE NEAR 70F FOR HIGH TEMPS WITH A -PNA PATTERN WITH A DEEP WESTERN TROUGH.  MODELS ALSO HINT AT A STRONG PAC JET RESULTING IN A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN NOT LOCKING ANYTHING IN. 

NWS ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS:  NONE

Prepared by: / DEFINO / MICHEL / CRULEY / GARCIA / ERKEL /
The Cal-U Weather Laboratory