FORECAST DISCUSSION – From The Cal-U Weather Laboratory
Issued: 1415Z TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 03, 2009

CURRENTLY AT CAL U THE TEMPERATURE IS 45F WITH A DEW POINT OF 38F. THERE IS A LIGHT WIND OUT OF THE WEST AND A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1021.7MB. CLOUD COVER IS CURRENTLY OVERCAST.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS:

250MB SHOWS A SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE AXIS RUNNING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. TWO JET STREAKS UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE DOWNSTREAM STREAK IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AT THIS LEVEL. THIS LEVEL ALSO SHOWS AN INCREASED HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA SHOWING THE VAST OF DIFFERING TEMPERATURE COLUMNS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAM, WHICH IS TPYICAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. 500 MB SHOWS A SMALL SHORTWAVE OFF THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS WHICH SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY MAJOR WEATHER EFFECTS FOR SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE TROUGH HAS MOVED FURTHER WEST SHOWING AN UNSTACKED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LEADING TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE EAST COAST. THE MID WEST IS STILL UNDER THE AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALOFT LEADING TOWARD A POSSIBLE HIGH PRESSURE IN THAT REGION. 700 MB IS VERY SIMILIAR TO 500 BUT THIS SHOWS A LITTLE SHORTWAVE WRAPPING UNDER THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL BE AN AREA TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS:

THE CONUS IS DOMINATED MAINLY BY A HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030MB OVER MISSOURI. THIS IS BRINGING OUR REGION COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH MAIN FLOW FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS ALSO A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE WEST COAST. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD OHIO. THERE IS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE LAKES BUT THAT SHOULD NOT MIGRATE OUT OF THAT REGION.

NWS ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS:  NONE

Prepared by: / halye / jellison /
The Cal-U Weather Laboratory