FORECAST DISCUSSION – From The Cal-U Weather Laboratory
Issued: 1655Z MONDAY, NOVEMBER 02, 2009

CURRENTLY AT CALU THE TEMPERATURE IS 52F WITH A DEWPOINT OF 34F. WINDS ARE COMING FROM THE SSE AT 2 MPH. THE ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE IS 1022 MB AND STEADY.

250 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THERE IS MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS, AND A 90 KT JET STREAK OVER COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA, AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA.  500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SAME RIDGE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA. THE REST OF THE MANDATORY LEVELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 250 AND 500 MB ANALYSIS.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SOUTH TO MISSOURI. DUAL HIGHS ARE PRESENT AROUND THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. SOLENOIDS OF WAA AND CAA ARE PRESENT EAST AND WEST OF THE LOW, RESPECTIVELY.

THERMODYNAMIC ANALYSIS FOR KPIT AT 12Z SHOWS A STABLE COLUMN AS THE PARCEL INCREASES ALTITUDE VERTICALLY IN THE ATMOSPHERE. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER VALUES IN AGREEMENT WITH STABILITY.

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT TEMPS WILL STAY AROUND THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH LOW TEMPS AROUND 20S TO 30S WITH SPORADIC SHOWERS CHARACTERIZING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

NWS ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS:  NONE

Prepared by: / KACHINKO / HUEBNER / WERTZ / JANICKI / PERICHO /
The Cal-U Weather Laboratory