FORECAST DISCUSSION – From The Cal-U Weather Laboratory
Issued: Z THURSDAY, OCTOBER 29, 2009
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CURRENTLY THE CAL U WX CENTER IS UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 53 DEGREES F AND A DEWPOINT OF 47 DEGREES WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. PRESSURE IS 1023MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AT 250 MB SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN REGION AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THERE IS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WEST. MULTIPLE JET STREAKS ARE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE TROUGH. ENTERING THE TROUGH IS A 130 KNOT JET STREAK. AT 850 MB A 55 JET STREAK IS PRESENT OVER TEXAS, AND AT 700 MB THERE IS STILL A DEFINED TROUGH IN WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER NEVADA. THIS CORRESPONDS TO A 1024MB HIGH. THERE IS ALSO A 1002MB LOW CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA THIS FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. STRONG TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRADIENTS AREA LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS GOES ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST, AS SW WINDS WILL BLOW ACROSS AN EAST TO WEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL BRING WARM AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. RADAR IMGRY CONFIRMS HEAVY RAIN BANDS STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE NORTHEAST REGION IS CLEAR OF RAIN AND A DRY SLOT IS MOVING OUT. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS HEAVY TEXTURING OF CLOUD TOPS IN TEXAS STRETCHING UP NORTH TOWARDS ILLINOIS. INFRARED RADAR SHOWS HIGHER CLOUD TOPS IN THE MID-WEST TO THE RIGHT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. SYNOPSIS: THE GFS AND SREF MODELS DEPICT THE OKLAHOMA LOW STRENGTHENING AND MOVING NORTH, AS IT WILL BE CARRIED BY THE STRONG NORTHWARD FLOW. THIS LOW WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY WARMING IN THE FORECAST AREA, FOLLOWED BY HEAVY RAIN IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AN EARLY MORNING HIGH TEMPEATURE IN THE LOW 60S WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND SKYS WILL CLEAR LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND SREF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE GENERAL CIRCULATION PATTERNS, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT OVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES. NWS ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS: NONE |
Prepared by: / LAHMERS / BAIRD / WESOLOSKY / MOTTER / WOLFE / OPEL / MELLARS / ERKEL / WERNER / |
