FORECAST DISCUSSION – From The Cal-U Weather Laboratory
Issued: 2150Z FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2009

Currently at cal u it is 49 f with calm winds.  the dewpoint is 34 F with pressure at 1026 mb and rising. 

Upper air analysis at 250 mb shows a meridional flow.  There is a ridge in the west with a trough in the central plains.  There is also a small trough over the great lakes.  A 90 kt jet streak crossing over the nw.  moving down to the 500 mb level, the trough is still visible over the great lakes.  There is a tight pressure gradient in the nw associated with another system coming into the conus.  A ridge is beginning to dominate the majority of the conus.  At the 700 mb level, winds are strong in the nw, upstream from the ridge.  850 mb level has a general ridge pattern and streamlines indicate divergence over the great plains.  Isentropic analysis at 294 k shows a small moist tongue moving into TX/OK/AK region.

Visible satellite shows high convective clouds associated with storms in the nw and over southern tx.  The lp is moving out of the conus from the ne and into Canada.  Ir confirms the storm systems in the nw and over tx with high clouds.  Wv shows moist conditions over the northern conus rockies.  The system in tx has much shear.  Radar indicates severe weather activity in southern tx. 

At the surface, there is a 1022 mb hp over co with a tight pressure gradient over the nw.  gusts are reaching speeds of 26 kt over the ne region with 30 kt gusts in the w.  skew-t from kpit shows moist conditions at the surface until 800 mb.  The tp level is at 165 mb.  Further south at kcrp it is moist until 700 mb with cape at 230 j and cin at 109 j with some directional shear at the surface. 

GFS 500-vort model shows the lp over the great lakes moving out by Saturday.  The next lp is expected to come into the conus by Monday and coming to the fa by wed.  the third system follows closely behind effecting the fa Thursday and Friday.  The weekend should bring cloudy skies for the next few days with temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 30s. 

NWS ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS:  NONE

Prepared by: / REPASI / SHEER / NIEDER / WALKER / GADEKE /
The Cal-U Weather laboratory
Http://www.calu.edu/weather